黄金突破1300!“中国大妈”购金的时机又来了?

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 马爽 中国证券报

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今年以来,黄金在多次尝试突破1300美元/盎司未果后,近日借助半岛局势一举强势拿下1330美元关口,刷新年内最高水平。这样的走势,让曾经在今年3月份一举花了200多万元投资黄金的、40多岁的“中国大妈”邱姨再度做起了“发财梦”。

(图为3月中旬以来COMEX黄金期货主力合约走势)

一波未平,一波又起。近期美国国会或将为黄金走势再送“大礼包”。据报道,美国9月底之前面临的两大危机——债务上限和政府关门,似乎将随时摁下金价起飞的按钮。

黄金“大妈”斩获不菲

2016年上半年黄金的反弹让许多人眼馋,曾在2015年下半年清空黄金配置的邱姨懊悔不已,并一直伺机再“买点儿黄金”。去年年底,COMEX黄金期货在1120美元/盎司附近止跌反弹,这让邱姨发现了机会,今年3月份,她果断配了200万元的黄金,包括实物和证券、基金投资。

邱姨的选择,至少现在看来,结果是很好的。尤其是近期,黄金在突破1300美元/盎司后加速上涨,虽然本周有所回落但趋势仍未破坏。

在黄金资产跷跷板的另一头,美元的表现也令黄金增色不少。上周五,杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会期间,美联储主席耶伦及欧洲央行行长德拉吉讲话内容对美元形成重压,自此打开了美元指数一波快速下跌行情,而本周地缘局势引发市场避险情绪,进一步加剧美元弱势,避险资产一飞冲天。8月28日开始,黄金价格一再打破阻力,一度站上1330美元/盎司,并刷新2017年最高水平1331.9美元/盎司的高点。

金大师黄金分析师王琎青表示,近期,金价成功站上1300美元的主要原因在于避险情绪助推。

其一,地缘局势引发市场避险情绪;

其二,特朗普团队的内部矛盾,令市场对特朗普执政能力产生怀疑,助跌美元;

其三,欧元区经济表现要强于美国,使得欧元表现偏强,市场做多欧元热情高涨。

金石期货分析师黄李强表示,近期导致黄金走强主要因素包括

首先,美国通胀数据连续多个月低于2%的水平,市场对于美国加息进程推迟的预期增强,美元指数持续下跌,对黄金价格产生支撑;

其次,地缘局势持续升级,特朗普政府多名高管辞职,美国政局不稳,激发了市场的避险需求;

最后,资金大量进入黄金市场,进一步推升了黄金价格。

不过,随着避险情绪在盘面逐渐兑现成多头盈利,风险资产和避险资产也完成了一次快速切换,美元多头也于92点下方展开强势反扑,COMEX黄金近两日也因美元走强及投资者获利了结出现回调,但仍维持在1310美元/盎司上方。

(图为美元指数3月中旬以来走势)

避险潮去又潮回

一波未平,一波又起。

就在地缘局势风波未平之际,美国国会又拉响警报:9月29日之前,美国国会必须决定债务上限是否上调(fiscal showdown);9月30日之前,为了避免政府关门,必须通过开支法案。

而分析师告诉中国证券报(公众号:xhszzb)记者,从现在到9月29日美国财政部“弹尽粮绝”前,参众两院共同处于会期的时间只有10余天,可供解决该问题的时间已经不多了。

高盛认为,政府关门的风险约为50%,对债务上限的担忧则相对较少,虽然这些财政辩论与更为广泛的议程没有直接联系,但难免会耗费额外的时间和精力,并且分散对税改这类问题的注意力。

王琎青表示,如果美国国会无法批准提高债务上限规模,美国政府将被迫关门,届时也将会带动金价上涨。不过,从近期美国国会一些大佬的讲话看,关门的可能性相对较小。如果美国政府不关门,将会削弱对黄金避险需求的刺激。

其实,围绕美国总统特朗普的一系列事件早已成为黄金市场相依相随的机会和风险。

黄李强表示,美国7月份的议息会议纪要显示,部分官员认为美国虽然目前的通胀水平较低,但恢复到正常水平只是时间问题,不应该在通胀问题上耽误过多时间。并认为,在近期的议息会议上就应该会宣布“缩表”。不仅如此,美国加息是大势所趋,美元持续走弱及黄金反弹只是因为加息进程不及预期所致。但加息只会推迟,并不会终止,因此,黄金整体跌势仍难避免。从目前情况来看,9月份美联储议息会议上大概率会出台偏紧的货币政策,这对于黄金价格将产生压制。

国泰君安证券首席固定收益分析师覃汉表示,从去年开始,地缘等方面事件频发。不过资本市场均快速完成了“风险在线(risk on)”和“风险消散(risk off)”之间的切换,且很多时候这种切换甚至在日内就会完成,虽然突发事件频频上演,但其影响在趋向短期化。

1300美元攻守战

实际上,从7月中旬以来,COMEX期金便从阶段新低1204美元展开触底反弹,截至8月29日的高点1331.9美元,期间累计涨幅达10.62%。伴随着价格上涨,其总持仓量也“水涨船高”。数据显示,7月31日,黄金期货合约总持仓量为436962份,而到了8月25日,总持仓量已达到516831份,同期总持仓量增长了18.3%。

一般而言,当价格走高时总持仓量伴随一同上升,往往是期货市场看涨趋势的技术验证。按照目前价格,黄金处于今年的高点,且已经抹去了技术上的阻力。

然而,在王琎青看来:“金价越往上走,多空分歧也就越大,从而导致黄金价格波动幅度也有所增大。”

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)公布的数据显示,截至8月22日,黄金的管理基金多头持仓量为200717手,空头持仓为16638手,多头净持仓创近一年新高,显示出基金看好黄金。从黄金ETF来看,黄金反弹以来,全球七大黄金ETF持仓一直呈现持续增加的态势。

“一般情况来说,资金相对于黄金的上涨具有滞后性,目前资金在黄金市场沉淀较多,并不能作为黄金继续上涨的重要论据。 ”黄李强表示。

王琎青表示,未来黄金的表现仍然要看美元“脸色”。从近期来看,美元指数出现见底迹象。由于此前大量资金做空美元,若美元出现阶段性见底,空头回补有望助推美元出现一波阶段性反弹,金价将因此出现调整。短期内金价还有所反复,1300美元将是观察多方力道的重要点位。

展望后市,中国白银集团首席市场研究员兼分析师侯文斌表示,地缘格局继续反映出未来几周甚至几个月不确定性上升的可能性。随着美元走软,债券价格上涨,地缘局势吸引了黄金买盘。未来几周甚至几个月里,黄金将开启强劲的涨势,迎来大幅上涨。

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