谁是“裸泳者”?

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这几周来,安省的“4-20”新政加上Home Capital银行的挤兑危机,搞得房市一片哀鸿、风声鹤唳,5月份在一些区域出现了房价下跌的情况。

房价会大跌崩盘吗?

很多等着“抄底”的朋友们又在喊“房价要崩盘”了。坦率地讲,从今后最近几年看,崩盘的可能性仍然实在是小,理由很简单:

  1. 需求一直比较旺盛。其中移民是主要的驱动力,现在多伦多周边的新移民数量稳定在每年8万人左右,占加拿大新移民总数的32%,而且“含金量”不低。另外由于“聚集效应”,其它地方的人口也在朝GTA迁移。内外移民加在一起,GTA的人口增长率一直在每5年9%,downtown更是达到了令人恐怖的每5年30%以上!
  2. 供应不足。如下图,Greenbelt环保政策等造成建筑土地日益萎缩,low-rise房子的库存量一直在快速下跌——2007年4月库存量为16168套,而2016年4月仅有2751套(17%)!那么,即便这几个月放盘量比去年“大幅”增加,也会被很快消化掉。
  3. 不要幻想出现大片“烂尾楼”,因为对于成片开发的项目,都是要预售70%以后才能开工,换言之市场风险在开工之前已经被基本上消化掉。实际上,正如大家看到的,由于购买力的原因,从去年下半年以来,Condo的需求非常旺盛,而且价格很坚挺。

Single Family Home:哪些要退烧?

2015和2016年,用于Townhouse、Semi-house和House的地价飞速增长,连带着楼花价格也跳涨。如下图,仅在2014秋-2015秋一年之内,Richmond Hill的20’、36’、40’和50’的 lot地价都跳涨了50%!而在Aurora西北的Arbor楼盘,2016年初最后一期推出来之后,到现在价钱就再也没有涨过——之前几期炒得太高,涨不动啦。

结合其它数据,笔者觉得,

  1. 各种非黄金地段的Single Family Home用地,需要“退烧”。原因明摆着:地价涨这么快,建筑成本也在涨,现在修房子出来谁买得起呀?还是“以时间换空间”,等房价涨上来再说吧。比如最近买Crosby的Bungalow的朋友,就得小心了。
  2. 同理,Single Family Home楼花也得“退烧”——面粉比面包贵太多,而且还有“门票费”等歪门邪道,早该治治啦。
  3. 一些地段一般的区域的独立屋(比如Aurora有些楼盘及附近区域),需要“退烧”。这是因为过去几年在开发商和地产经纪的“合作”下,价格被炒得实在是太高啦!
  4. 有意思的是,用于townhouse的20’ lot起涨最早、累计涨幅最大,说明由于房价的上涨带来购买力的压力,低价格、高容积率的townhouse,在前一阵子出现了“补涨行情”,而在当前的回调中,平均而言,受的冲击也比独立屋、Bungalow小得多。

其它建议

  1. 房贷收紧的影响:最受影响的是那些本来经济实力就差的买房人的投机性需求,以及很多套房子重复抵押的投机性需求。比如笔者管理的房贷投资基金,从2017年4月下旬到现在,几乎把钱全都用在了“买房/楼花交接一贷救急”,把我们自己都吓了一大跳,这其中很大一部分都是报税收入非常低没法申请银行房贷的。
  2. Condo:由于需求旺盛,2016-2017年Condo的价格涨幅一路上扬。不过有两点要注意:(1)主要是交通条件好(特别是地铁边上)的新Condo在领涨,这应该是Condo投资者关注的焦点;(2)不要指望Condo有很惊人的涨幅,如果买楼花的话,回报期还会很长。
  3. Stacked Townhouse值得关注。这是因为Stacked Townhouse的价钱和Condo差不多,但是居住质量要好得多,“刚性需求”强并有一定的“补涨”投资价值,比上(免管理费独立屋和Townhouse)不足比下(Condo)有余。

 

现在,我们根据加拿大华人的需求,正在围绕“控制总融资成本、控制全过程投资风险”的核心目标,为房地产投资人、开发商提供投资、融资服务和产品,希望通过我们的努力,为华人社区在加拿大的发展壮大尽一份绵薄之力。特别是对专业水准高的房地产经纪、房贷经纪、中小开发商,我们能为他们自己或其客户迅速提供融资支持:获得物业地址后,20分钟之内可判明可行性并报价;50万加元以内融资需求24小时内可放款;50-150万加元,两个工作日内可放款;150万以上的需求,尽责调查时间要长一些,但可以边沟通边准备资金,不会误事。

 

Sales Representative, Highyon Realty Inc. Brokerage;

Mortgage Lic #: M13000527, under FMP, Mortgage Investments Inc. (FSCO reg. # 12373)

 

(以上内容不构成任何具体投资建议。对具体个案,欢迎来电垂询王富嘉6474000186或电邮wang_fu_jia@msn.com或光临近期举办的投资讲座。讲座详细信息请参考下面的广告

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