楼市调控“死命令”来了,违者问责!“金九银十”还会再现吗?

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日前召开的中共中央政治局会议,用“坚决遏制房价上涨”八个字,为未来的房地产市场定下基调。

目标明确了,谁来负责呢?8月7日,住建部召开部分城市房地产工作座谈会提出,对未能实现调控目标的地方坚决问责。

住建部:楼市调控不力 坚决问责

8月7日,住房和城乡建设部在辽宁沈阳召开部分城市房地产工作座谈会。在会上,住房城乡建设部对参会各城市未来房地产调控工作提出了进一步要求:

● 建立房地产长效机制

会议指出,坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,加快建立多主体供应、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度,坚持分类调控、因城施策、一城一策,完善和落实房地产调控措施,防范化解市场风险,促进建立房地产长效机制,努力实现全体人民住有所居目标。

● 加快制定住房发展规划

各地要加快制定实施住房发展规划,抓紧调整住房和用地供应结构,大力发展住房租赁市场,完善和落实差别化住房信贷、税收政策,支持合理住房消费,坚决遏制投机炒房,加强舆论引导和预期管理,持续开展房地产市场乱象治理专项行动,严厉打击违法违规开发企业、中介机构,维护人民群众合法权益。

● 对楼市调控不力的城市坚决问责

各地切实做好房地产市场调控工作,系统分析当地房地产市场存在的突出问题和主要风险点,因地制宜,精准施策、综合施策,把地方政府稳地价、稳房价、稳预期的主体责任落到实处,确保市场稳定。住房和城乡建设部将建立房地产市场监测体系,完善对地方房地产调控工作的评价考核机制。要严格督查,对工作不力、市场波动大、未能实现调控目标的地方坚决问责

7月楼市调控密集程度刷新历史记录

据中原地产研究中心统计数据显示,7月单月,全国楼市调控密集程度刷新历史记录,合计超过60个城市发布了超过70次各类型房地产调控政策。2018年1-7月,全国主要城市调控次数达260次。

7月单月,调控政策发布密集程度空前,相比6月调控次数翻倍,那么和此前调控相比有哪些不同呢?

中原地产首席分析师张大伟分析认为,次前调控政策集中在二三线城市,而7月单月,房地产调控是从中央到地方,从一二线城市到三四线城市均有大量分布。7月以来,中央、住建部等在调控中力度更大

7月31日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。会议要求,下决心解决好房地产市场问题,坚持因城施策,促进供求平衡,合理引导预期,整治市场秩序,坚决遏制房价上涨。加快建立促进房地产市场平稳健康发展长效机制。

业内人士觉察到,这73个字定调,显示出对整体房地产调控定位再次出现变化。

58安居客房产研究院首席分析师张波认为,如果说2017年“稳定”是一个关键词,那么2018年“遏制”这一用词则表现出更明确的调控力度。会议还用“坚决”两字表明态度,由此可见,下半年房价大面积上涨的可能性变得极小

楼市监管不放松 “金九银十”料难再现

一般情况下,每年9月份、10月份都是房地产市场较为重要的时间窗口期。目前距离9月份只有20余天,业内对于即将到来的“金九银十”,基本持谨慎态度。

如是金融研究院高级研究员杨芹芹表示,按照房地产市场的分析逻辑,短期看政策,中期看产业,长期看人口。因此,从短期看,随着政策层面的相对偏紧,即调控政策继续加码、房贷政策难言宽松。种种迹象表明,未来政策层面对于房地产市场的收紧有进一步加码的趋势,而这无疑会对房价形成一定的制约,预计“金九银十”很难重现。

58安居客房产研究院首席分析师张波表示,“楼市升级引擎,房价急踩刹车”,当前无论是住房租赁房源的供应和建设,还是保障性住房,均可以看到监管部门正在不断优化与房地产市场长远发展相匹配的顶层设计,以及着手建立楼市调控长效机制。总的来看,房地产市场正在由早期单一化注重短期效果向长效化发展;由商品化住宅为主的市场向商品房、租赁住宅和保障性住宅三位一体的方向升级。

杨芹芹认为,由于房价变化主要看供需关系,因此,预计未来二线、三线城市房价可能会出现一定分化,尤其是对于一些人口流出较为严重、前期涨幅较高的二线、三线城市来说,更加需要警惕房价风险。

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