Summary of Expert Scholar Dr. Kui Wai Li in the Field of Conceptual Economics (3)
—Property, Interest Rates, and Upward Mobility: A Canadian Perspective—
作者：李鉅威博士
August 10, 2024
I. Introduction
引言
There are a few relevant economics concepts in understanding the property market. To an individual, the acquisition of a property could be the largest single purchase in a person’s life. Deciding to purchase a property can be a difficult one because there is the need to save sufficiently for the down payment, but then the rising property price and inflation could outpace the amount saved. This is particularly so for the younger generation as their earnings may not be sufficiently handsome at the early stage in their career employment, or they have other financial commitments that delay their decision to acquire a property.
在理解房地产市场时，有一些相关的经济学概念。对于个人来说，购置房产可能是人生中最大的一笔单项支出。决定购买房产可能是一个困难的决定，因为需要为首付款存够钱，但房价和通货膨胀的上升可能会超过存款的增长。这对于年轻一代尤其如此，因为他们在职业生涯初期的收入可能不够丰厚，或者他们有其他财务承诺，导致他们推迟购房决定。
One interesting idea is that individuals may consider the mortgage as an expense, especially at the early stage because the mortgage payment involves interest payment, but towards the end of the amortization, most individuals would consider the acquired property as an investment because the value of the property has gone up. Property acquisition is considered as “forced savings” in economics terms because it forces a person to pay for the mortgage, and at the same time, limits the person’s other spending activities.
一个有趣的观点是，个人可能会将抵押贷款视为一种支出，特别是在早期阶段，因为抵押贷款支付涉及利息支付，但在摊销结束时，大多数人会将所购房产视为一种投资，因为房产的价值已经上升。购置房产在经济学上被视为“强制储蓄”，因为它迫使人们支付抵押贷款，同时限制了其他消费活动。
II. Canadian Features
加拿大的特点
The factors that determine property purchase include the individual’s earning ability, savings, possibility of parental assistance, market price, mortgage rate, market expectation, speculation, immigration, and age of the purchaser. While the tradition analysis of supply and demand explains the movement of property price, there are special Canadian features in the movement of property prices. Canada is a land-intensive country, and land supply should not be a problem. Even though land in northern Canada may not be too inhabitable, there is still sufficient land for development in the rest of Canada.
决定购房的因素包括个人的收入能力、储蓄、父母援助的可能性、市场价格、抵押贷款利率、市场预期、投机、移民和购房者的年龄。虽然传统的供需分析解释了房价的变动，但加拿大的房价变动有其特殊的特点。加拿大是一个土地密集型国家，土地供应不应成为问题。尽管加拿大北部的土地可能不太适合居住，但加拿大其他地区仍有足够的土地可供开发。
Canada is an immigrant country, and over the decades, there have been regular inflows of immigrants coming to Canada. It is those enterprising immigrants who over the decades and centuries have built up the modern Canadian economy. However, historical development in Canada has concentrated on a handful of metropolitan cities, and these are where contemporary immigrants would like to settle. And since developed metropolitan cities in Canada are always constrained by land and rising population, property prices tend to go up in crowded cities and population centers. In a long-term perspective, there is the need to diversify population to other Canadian cities, and this requires the establishment of communication network and infrastructure, investment in other Canadian cities so that jobs and employment can be created to attract human settlements there. On the contrary, smaller cities are always more peaceful and are suitable for young parents to raise their families.
加拿大是一个移民国家，几十年来，移民不断涌入加拿大。正是这些有进取心的移民在几十年和几个世纪里建立了现代加拿大经济。然而，加拿大的历史发展集中在少数几个大都市，这些是当代移民希望定居的地方。由于加拿大发达的大都市总是受到土地和人口增长的限制，房价往往在拥挤的城市和人口中心上涨。从长远来看，需要将人口分散到其他加拿大城市，这需要建立通信网络和基础设施，投资其他加拿大城市，以便创造就业机会，吸引人们在那里定居。相反，小城市总是更和平，适合年轻父母抚养家庭。
In infrastructural development, such as road and rail network and development of new towns, there is always the choice between “demand-led” and “supply-led”. The former is when the market responds to rising demand. The latter is to create and establish the needed infrastructure first before the rising demand that follows. In property development, Canada can choose the “supply-led” strategy. This can be done by effective planning on the development of land, the need to cut administrative delays and red tapes, and the nurture of responsible developers. The abundance of land development shall attract investment in the property sector. A steady supply shall maintain stability in property prices.
在基础设施发展方面，如道路和铁路网络以及新城镇的发展，总是存在“需求导向”和“供给导向”之间的选择。前者是市场对需求上升的反应。后者是先创建和建立所需的基础设施，然后才会出现需求上升。在房地产开发中，加拿大可以选择“供给导向”战略。这可以通过有效的土地开发规划、减少行政延误和繁文缛节以及培养负责任的开发商来实现。丰富的土地开发将吸引房地产部门的投资。稳定的供应将保持房价的稳定。
Another possibility is to examine Canada’s immigration policy to allow a steady inflow to avoid unfavorable spillover to property prices. Canada’s immigration policy has focused on the need to allow qualified immigrants to replenish the needed labor and professional jobs. Many immigrants bring with their families, and jobs and housing needs become their priority. There is the need for a more effective Canadian policy that links immigration to housing needs. For example, immigrants could be encouraged to settle in different geographical areas, different professional jobs should be available across Canada, and property and rental prices would differ across Canada too. While the government can offer an annual estimate of incoming immigrants that reflect an estimate on the demand side, the more reliable strategy is to work on the supply side because price variations could be limited once a steady supply of properties is maintained.
另一种可能性是审查加拿大的移民政策，以允许稳定的移民流入，避免对房价产生不利影响。加拿大的移民政策侧重于允许合格的移民补充所需的劳动力和专业工作。许多移民带着家人，工作和住房需求成为他们的优先事项。需要一个更有效的加拿大政策，将移民与住房需求联系起来。例如，可以鼓励移民定居在不同的地理区域，不同的专业工作应在加拿大各地提供，房产和租金价格也会在加拿大各地有所不同。虽然政府可以提供反映需求方面估计的年度移民人数估计，但更可靠的策略是从供给方面入手，因为一旦维持稳定的房产供应，价格波动可能会受到限制。
III. Interest Rate Policy
利率政策
It would be interesting to see how property buyers would choose between a) a low interest rate but a rising property price, or b) a high interest rate and a low or steady property price. A lot of people would believe a low interest rate is better because the mortgage payment is smaller. This may not be correct because there are other complications. In economics, the interest rate is the price of money, and a low interest rate would mean that money is “cheap”, and that means people are not keen to hold money. Property speculations are then encouraged, and that raises property prices. This immediately hurts those buying property for their own use. A low interest rate results in high and rising property prices. Hence, even if the mortgage rate is low, the high property price could put a heavy financial burden on the property purchasers, especially those younger buyers.
有趣的是，看看购房者会如何在以下两者之间做出选择：a) 低利率但房价上涨，或 b) 高利率且房价低或稳定。很多人会认为低利率更好，因为按揭付款较少。这可能不正确，因为还有其他复杂因素。在经济学中，利率是货币的价格，低利率意味着货币“便宜”，这意味着人们不愿意持有货币。然后鼓励房地产投机，这会推高房价。这立即伤害了那些为自己使用而购买房产的人。低利率导致高且不断上涨的房价。因此，即使按揭利率较低，高房价也可能给购房者，尤其是年轻购房者带来沉重的财务负担。
On the contrary, it is true that a high mortgage rate requires more payment, but the mortgage can always last for a longer period of amortization. The advantage of a high interest rate is that property price will be kept lower and steadier, and that there could be a rise in property price in the long-term probably before the amortization period is over. In other words, the long-term rise in property value will go to the buyer instead of going to the speculators manipulating the market prices. Under a normal situation, property prices will always rise, and that gain in property value could outpace both the high mortgage payment and the inflation rate over time.
相反，高按揭利率确实需要更多的付款，但按揭总是可以持续更长的摊销期。高利率的优势在于房价会保持较低和较稳定，并且在摊销期结束前房价可能会长期上涨。换句话说，房产价值的长期上涨将归买家所有，而不是操纵市场价格的投机者。在正常情况下，房价总是会上涨，房产价值的增长可能会超过高按揭付款和通货膨胀率。
In the long-term, buyers of property users stand to gain more when interest rate is high. In addition, whether the interest rate is high or low is relative. Empirical research studies have shown that the optimal interest rate in Canada is between 4% to 5%, as that could eliminate numerous unfavorable monetary and financial implications.
从长远来看，当利率较高时，房产用户的买家会获得更多。此外，利率是高还是低是相对的。实证研究表明，加拿大的最佳利率在4%到5%之间，因为这可以消除许多不利的货币和金融影响。
IV. Upward Mobility
向上流动性
Property ownership to an individual is both an asset and an investment. More can be done at the macroeconomics level. Typically, individuals could be passing through a “property circuit” in their life when it comes to property ownership. A young individual or a young couple with limited career experience would properly live in a smaller dwelling. As the individual grows older and gains more working experience, the individual will need a bigger dwelling because the family size is getting bigger. Hence, this family will move to a bigger house so that the family can live comfortably. However, as the individual ages, and the grown-up children could have got married and moved out, the family size will then be reduced. The elderly individual may find too much work living in a big house, and it becomes likely that the elderly will move back to a smaller dwelling. In other words, there is a “property circuit” where individuals would demand for a smaller house at their young age, then move to a bigger house at the mature age but move back to a smaller living dwelling at their old age. This does represent a likely property demand pattern for an individual at different age in life in Canada.
对个人来说，房产所有权既是资产也是投资。在宏观经济层面可以做更多的事情。通常，个人在其一生中可能会经历一个“房产循环”。一个年轻的个人或一对年轻夫妇，职业经验有限，通常会住在较小的住所。随着个人年龄的增长和工作经验的增加，个人将需要更大的住所，因为家庭规模在变大。因此，这个家庭将搬到更大的房子里，以便家庭可以舒适地生活。然而，随着个人年龄的增长，成年的孩子可能已经结婚并搬出去，家庭规模将减少。老年人可能会发现住在大房子里工作太多，因此老年人可能会搬回较小的住所。换句话说，有一个“房产循环”，个人在年轻时会需要较小的房子，然后在成熟时搬到较大的房子，但在老年时搬回较小的住所。这确实代表了加拿大个人在不同年龄段的可能房产需求模式。
An effective housing policy would have to understand this “property circuit”, and the policy could serve as an instrument of “upward mobility” for Canadians. Property construction can incorporate and fulfil a policy which helps individuals to move up the social ladder, and at the same time satisfies the property needs of different groups of Canadians. A housing policy is not only about how many houses are built, but there is the social aspect that helps households to achieve upward mobility. This can be done by structuring the construction and building of properties in different areas in Canada.
一个有效的住房政策必须了解这个“房产循环”，并且该政策可以作为加拿大人“向上流动”的工具。房产建设可以结合并实现一项政策，帮助个人提升社会阶梯，同时满足不同群体的房产需求。住房政策不仅仅是关于建造了多少房子，还有助于家庭实现向上流动的社会方面。这可以通过在加拿大不同地区的房产建设和建筑结构来实现。
One possibility is to increase the building of large houses. An increase in the supply of large houses would mean that the price of larger houses would remain steady. When the prices of large houses are not increasing, the price of smaller houses and homes would also remain steady and low. Stability in property prices would then allow upward mobility as people living in smaller houses can purchase larger homes, and the smaller homes and dwellings would then be returned to circulate in the market for first time buyers. Similarly, those elderly who prefer to return to live in smaller homes would also release their larger homes back to circulate in the property market, thereby allowing others to acquire a bigger property.
一种可能性是增加大房子的建设。大房子的供应增加意味着大房子的价格将保持稳定。当大房子的价格不再上涨时，小房子和住宅的价格也将保持稳定和低廉。房价的稳定将允许向上流动，因为住在小房子里的人可以购买更大的房子，然后小房子和住所将返回市场供首次购房者使用。同样，那些喜欢回到小房子里生活的老年人也会将他们的大房子释放回市场，从而允许其他人获得更大的房产。
Hence, a housing policy should also concentrate on the proportion between the various sizes of houses. This should become important in satisfying the demand for properties. An increase in the supply of large houses would add to the stability of property prices. On the contrary, the rapid increase only in the supply of small houses would mean the relative supply of large houses is declining, and that a lower supply of larger houses would mean a higher price for the larger houses, and that the increase in the price of large houses would filter into an increase in the prices of smaller houses. Eventually, property prices keep rising for all types of houses. This adds to the instability of property prices.
因此，住房政策还应集中在各种房屋大小之间的比例上。这在满足房产需求方面应该变得重要。大房子的供应增加将有助于房价的稳定。相反，仅小房子供应的快速增加意味着大房子的相对供应在下降，而大房子的供应减少意味着大房子的价格更高，大房子价格的上涨将传导到小房子的价格上涨。最终，各类房屋的房价不断上涨。这增加了房价的不稳定性。
V. Public Housing
公共住房
It is an easy calculation in the provision of public housing. The usual pattern of public housing provision is that the government builds the public houses but charges rents to the users. However, rent payment means the household would not have the property, and there is no possibility of upward mobility as the household would pay the rent, which cannot be capitalized into some form of property ownership. Households living in public housing would remain unable to buy their own properties. The simple economic logic is that rents are spendings while mortgage payments form a long-term investment. Spending does not have any return.
提供公共住房的计算很简单。公共住房供应的通常模式是政府建造公共住房，但向用户收取租金。然而，支付租金意味着家庭不会拥有该物业，并且没有向上流动的可能性，因为家庭支付的租金无法转化为某种形式的财产所有权。住在公共住房中的家庭将无法购买自己的房产。简单的经济逻辑是，租金是支出，而按揭付款是长期投资。支出没有任何回报。
原稿：英文
英翻中：张晋
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著名经济学家、前大学教授李鉅威（Charles）博士宣布将参加**士嘉堡-爱静阁**选区的联邦保守党提名。李博士拥有数十年的经济研究和学术经验，准备将其丰富的专业知识带到联邦政府层面，旨在应对加拿大紧迫的经济挑战，并使其释放全部经济潜力。
renowned economist and former university professor Dr. Kui-Wai Li (Charles) announced his candidacy for the federal Conservative Party nomination in the Scarborough-Agincourt riding. With decades of experience in economic research and academia, Dr. Li is prepared to bring his extensive expertise to the federal level, aiming to address Canada’s pressing economic challenges and unleash its full economic potential.
释放加拿大的经济潜力
Unleashing Canada’s Economic Potential
李博士对加拿大的愿景源于他对经济原则的深刻理解以及他对如何培育强劲可持续经济的承诺。“过去八年，联邦自由党政府的税收不断增加，债务不断增加，严重影响了加拿大经济，”李博士说。“我受到鼓舞，并准备为促进和改善加拿大经济而站出来，坚持由尊敬的皮埃尔·波利耶夫领导的保守党的原则。”
Dr. Li’s vision for Canada is rooted in his deep understanding of economic principles and his commitment to fostering a robust and sustainable economy. “With rising taxes and growing debt, the Liberal government over the past eight years has severely impacted the Canadian economy,” said Dr. Li. “I am encouraged and prepared to stand up for the promotion and improvement of the Canadian economy, adhering to the principles of the Conservative Party under the leadership of the Honorable Pierre Poilievre.”
经济发展研究领域的良好业绩
A Proven Track Record in Economic Development
李博士的辉煌职业生涯包括 1990 年至 2010 年担任香港亚太经合组织研究中心主任，并在耶鲁大学、东京大学和多伦多大学等全球知名机构担任教职。他的著作包括《概念经济学：政治和社会科学中的联络作用》和《重新定义资本主义在全球经济发展中的作用》，反映了他对经济自由和发展的深刻见解。
Dr. Li’s illustrious career includes serving as the Director of the APEC Study Center in Hong Kong from 1990 to 2010, and holding teaching positions at prestigious institutions worldwide, including Yale University, University of Tokyo, and University of Toronto. His publications, such as “Conceptual Economics: The Liaising Role In Politics And Social Sciences” and “Redefining Capitalism in Global Economic Development,” reflect his profound insights into economic freedom and development.
加强加拿大的政策重点
Policy Priorities for a Stronger Canada
李博士强调战略资源部署和惠及所有加拿大人的政策决策的重要性。“我们的政策必须全面、公正，并努力使每个加拿大人受益，”李博士表示。“我们需要关注当前问题和未来的可能性，确保经济可持续性和代际公平。”
Dr. Li emphasizes the importance of strategic resource deployment and policy decisions that benefit all Canadians. “Our policies must be comprehensive, unbiased, and work to benefit every Canadian,” Dr. Li stated. “We need to focus on both current issues and future possibilities, ensuring economic sustainability and intergenerational equity.”
促进加拿大经济的关键点
Key Points to Boost the Canadian Economy
– **先进技术**：促进技术进步，改善日常生活并保护资源。
– **Advanced Technology**: Promoting technological advancements to improve daily life and preserve resources.
– **人力资本**：加强教育并吸引技术移民，以填补专业劳动力的空白。
– **Human Capital**: Enhancing education and attracting skilled immigrants to fill gaps in the professional workforce.
– **私营部门赋权**：通过支持性政策和财政激励措施鼓励私人投资和企业。
– **Private Sector Empowerment**: Encouraging private investment and enterprise through supportive policies and financial incentives.
– **战略资源部署**：确保有效利用自然和金融资源促进经济增长。
– **Strategic Resource Deployment**: Ensuring effective use of natural and financial resources to foster economic growth.
呼吁士嘉堡-爱静阁居民采取行动
A Call to Action for Scarborough-Agincourt Residents
李博士呼吁士嘉堡-爱静阁居民支持他在即将举行的保守党提名会议上的候选资格。“在加拿大联邦议会中拥有发言权非常重要，”李博士强调道。“我已准备好面对这个选区的挑战性任务，并通过有效的经济政策为所有居民提供更高质量的生活。”
Dr. Li is calling on the residents of Scarborough-Agincourt to support his candidacy in the upcoming Conservative Party nomination meeting. “It is important to have a voice in Canada’s federal parliament,” Dr. Li emphasized. “I am prepared to face the challenging tasks of this riding and work towards a higher quality of life for all residents through effective economic policies.”
关于李鉅威博士
About Dr. Kui -Wai Li
李鉅威博士拥有伦敦城市大学贝叶斯商学院的博士学位，并完成了哈佛大学的高管课程。他的学术历程包括伊拉斯姆斯大学、伦敦经济学院和伦敦大学玛丽女王学院的学位。李博士致力于经济研究和政策制定，使他成为加拿大经济振兴的坚定倡导者。
Dr. Kui-Wai Li holds a Ph.D. from the Bayes Business School, City University, London, and has completed executive programs at Harvard University. His academic journey includes degrees from Erasmus University, London School of Economics, and Queen Mary College, University of London. Dr. Li’s dedication to economic research and policy development positions him as a strong advocate for Canada’s economic revitalization.
出版物：
Publications:
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《概念经济学：政治与社会科学中的联络角色》，2021年
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Conceptual Economics: The Liaising Role In Politics And Social Sciences, 2021
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《全球经济发展中的资本主义再定义》，2017年
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Redefining Capitalism in Global Economic Development, 2017
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《经济自由：香港的经验教训》，2012年
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Economic Freedom: Lessons of Hong Kong, 2012
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《东亚的资本主义发展与经济主义》，2002年
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Capitalist Development and Economism in East Asia, 2002
如何支持李博士
How to Support Dr. Li
- **加入保守党**：欢迎士嘉堡-爱静阁居民成为党员，并在提名会议上为李博士投票。会员费为 15 美元，可登录 www.conservative.ca 在线获取。
- **在提名会议上投票**：只有居住在该选区的党员才有资格投票。提名会议将于 2024 年后续某个月举行。
- **随时了解最新情况**：保留您的会员付款确认书作为购买会员资格的证明。
- **Join the Conservative Party**: Residents of Scarborough-Agincourt are invited to become party members and vote for Dr. Li in the nomination meeting. Membership can be obtained online for $15 at www.conservative.ca.
- **Vote in the Nomination Meeting**: Only party members residing in the riding are eligible to vote. The nomination meeting will be held sometime in 2024.
- **Stay Informed**: Keep your membership payment confirmation as proof of membership purchase.
- 加入联邦保守党 JOIN THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
注释：概念经济学：
Conceptual Economics:
**概念经济学**是研究个人、企业和政府如何做出资源分配决策的学科。它涉及理解**微观经济学**（个人和企业的行为）和**宏观经济学**（整个经济的表现）。
**Conceptual Economics** is the study of how individuals, businesses, and governments make decisions about allocating resources. It involves understanding both **microeconomics** (the behavior of individuals and firms) and **macroeconomics** (the performance of the economy as a whole).
经济学中的关键概念：
Key Concepts in Economics:
1. **稀缺性和选择**：资源是有限的，因此必须选择如何使用它们。
**Scarcity and Choice**: Resources are limited, so choices must be made about how to use them.
2. **供给和需求**：商品和服务的可用性与对它们的需求之间的关系。
**Supply and Demand**: The relationship between the availability of goods and services and the desire for them.
3. **机会成本**：做出选择时放弃的成本。
**Opportunity Cost**: The cost of what you give up when you make a choice.
4. **市场均衡**：供给等于需求的点。
**Market Equilibrium**: The point where supply equals demand.
5. **经济体系**：社会组织经济活动的不同方式，例如资本主义、社会主义和混合经济。
**Economic Systems**: Different ways societies organize economic activity, such as capitalism, socialism, and mixed economies.
编译：张晋
