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中国-加拿大贸易比较 – 2025年11月

–China-Canada Trade Comparison – November 2025–

Overview

(《北美财经新闻网》》评论员Thomas J. Cheung 2025年11月30日）The bilateral trade between China and Canada in 2025 reflects a complex relationship shaped by commodity dependencies, tariffs, and global economic shifts. Based on the latest available data for the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), total merchandise trade reached CAD 64.2 billion, up 9% year-over-year (YoY), with Canada running a deficit of CAD 17.8 billion. Canadian exports to China totaled CAD 16 billion (up 12% YoY), driven by energy and minerals, while imports from China were CAD 48 billion (up 8% YoY), led by consumer goods and machinery. Key trends include surges in Canadian energy exports due to infrastructure expansions like the Trans Mountain pipeline, contrasted by declines in agricultural exports amid retaliatory tariffs from China. This analysis focuses on major commodity categories, presented with comparative charts for clarity.

概述

2025年中国与加拿大的双边贸易反映了受大宗商品依赖、关税和全球经济变化影响的复杂关系。根据2025年上半年（H1 2025）最新可用数据，商品贸易总额达到642亿加元，同比增长9%，加拿大赤字178亿加元。加拿大对中国出口总额160亿加元（同比增长12%），主要由能源和矿产驱动，而从中国进口480亿加元（同比增长8%），主要由消费品和机械主导。主要趋势包括加拿大能源出口因Trans Mountain管道等基础设施扩张而激增，与此同时农业出口因中国报复性关税而下降。本分析聚焦主要商品类别，并以比较图表呈现以便清晰。

Total Trade and Balance

In H1 2025, Canada’s exports to China emphasized resource-based goods, accounting for ~70% of total exports, while imports were dominated by manufactured products. The widening deficit highlights Canada’s reliance on Chinese consumer and industrial goods versus China’s demand for Canadian raw materials. Projections for full-year 2025 suggest continued growth but with volatility from ongoing tariffs.

Text-Based Bar Chart Visualization (Exports blue, Imports red, in CAD Billion):

text
50 |                 
40 |          ████ (48) 
30 |                 
20 | ███ (16)        
10 |                 
 0 Exports     Imports

The chart shows imports significantly outpacing exports, contributing to the deficit.

总贸易与平衡

2025年上半年，加拿大对中国出口强调资源型商品，占出口总额约70%，而进口则由制成品主导。赤字扩大突显加拿大对中国消费和工业品的依赖，与中国对加拿大原材料的需求形成对比。2025年全年预测显示持续增长，但受持续关税影响波动。

文本柱状图可视化（出口蓝色，进口红色，加元十亿）：

text
50 |                 
40 |          ████ (48) 
30 |                 
20 | ███ (16)        
10 |                 
 0 出口         进口

图表显示进口显著超过出口，导致赤字。

Major Commodities: Canadian Exports to China

Key categories for Canadian exports in H1 2025 include energy, metal ores, farm/food products, and forestry. Energy surged due to crude oil shipments, while agriculture declined from tariffs on canola and seafood.

Text-Based Bar Chart Visualization (Values in CAD Billion, YoY Change in Parentheses):

text
Energy       ███████ (3.8, +81%)
Metal Ores   ██████ (3.7, +42%)
Farm/Food    █████ (3.4, -25%)
Forestry     ███ (1.8, -8%)

The chart illustrates strong growth in energy and minerals offsetting declines in agriculture.

主要商品：加拿大对中国出口

2025年上半年加拿大出口主要类别包括能源、金属矿石、农渔和中间食品产品以及林业。能源因原油出口而激增，而农业因对中国油菜籽和海产品的关税而下降。

文本柱状图可视化（价值加元十亿，同比变化括号内）：

text
能源         ███████ (3.8, +81%)
金属矿石     ██████ (3.7, +42%)
农渔/食品    █████ (3.4, -25%)
林业         ███ (1.8, -8%)

图表显示能源和矿产强劲增长抵消了农业下降。

Major Commodities: Chinese Exports to Canada

China’s exports to Canada in H1 2025 were led by consumer goods, electronics, and industrial machinery, reflecting manufacturing strengths. Consumer goods grew amid demand, while electronics saw a slight dip.

Text-Based Bar Chart Visualization (Values in CAD Billion, YoY Change in Parentheses):

text
Consumer Goods     ██████████ (15, +18%)
Electronics        ███████ (10.3, -2%)
Ind. Machinery     ████ (6.5, +19%)

The chart highlights robust growth in consumer and machinery sectors.

主要商品：中国对加拿大出口

2025年上半年中国对加拿大出口主要由消费品、电子电气设备和工业机械主导，反映制造优势。消费品因需求而增长，而电子略有下降。

文本柱状图可视化（价值加元十亿，同比变化括号内）：

text
消费品             ██████████ (15, +18%)
电子设备           ███████ (10.3, -2%)
工业机械           ████ (6.5, +19%)

图表突显消费和机械领域的强劲增长。

Trends and Implications

Trade growth decelerated in Q2 2025 due to tariffs, with exports flat and imports accelerating. Geopolitical tensions, including USMCA uncertainties and US-China trade wars, indirectly affect this bilateral flow. For Canada, diversifying away from commodities could mitigate risks; for China, sustaining demand in non-tariffed sectors is key. Full-year data may show further adjustments amid global recovery.

趋势与含义

2025年第二季度贸易增长因关税而放缓，出口持平而进口加速。地缘政治紧张，包括USMCA不确定性和中美贸易战，间接影响双边流动。对于加拿大，远离大宗商品多元化可缓解风险；对于中国，在非关税领域维持需求至关重要。全年数据可能显示在全球复苏中的进一步调整。

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